February 2026 AVSEC Update

WHAT ARE THE CRITICAL SECURITY THREATS FACING AVIATION IN FEBRUARY 2026?

This monthly security briefing covers US-Venezuela tensions with FAA restriction easing, East Pacific military operations causing GNSS interference, escalating US-Iran-Israel conflict risks, and regional hotspots in Niger, Ethiopia, and Cambodia-Thailand.

MedAire's aviation security specialist provides situation analysis, operational impact assessments, and actionable security advice for route planning, airspace monitoring, and risk mitigation across Caribbean, East Pacific, Middle East, West Africa, and Southeast Asia.

WHAT DOES THE BRIEFING COVER?

• US-Venezuela Situation FAA eased Maiquetia FIR restrictions January 29 following decreased tensions. Overflight and short turnaround operations may resume with heightened caution. Venezuela's aerospace defense law remains active with authority to monitor and intercept aircraft.

• East Pacific Operations US Operation Southern Spear creates risks through March 17 including military aircraft without transponders and GNSS interference across Mexico to Panama FIRs. Trump threatens military action against drug cartels with surgical strikes and naval interdiction.

• Middle East Escalation US military buildup with USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group deployed. Trump demands Iran dismantle nuclear program or face military consequences. Nuclear talks shifted to Oman. Strike risk elevated with potential for Iran-wide airspace shutdowns.
  
  

US-Venezuela: Cautious Resumption

• No additional US military activity: Since early January, no verified reports of US military activity inside Venezuelan territory

• Emergency declarations remain: Venezuela's interim authorities maintain extensive security measures including surveillance, selective detentions, and internal movement controls

• January 29 FAA restriction easing: FAA lifted longstanding Maiquetia FIR restrictions and adjacent Caribbean FIRs, enabling phased civil aviation resumption

• Trump signals de-escalation: Policy shift follows statements highlighting decreased regional tensions with Venezuela and broader Caribbean

• Unpredictable environment persists: Absence of renewed strikes should not be interpreted as return to normalcy—swift escalation remains possible

• Aerospace defense law active: Venezuela retains broad authority to monitor, intercept, and neutralize aircraft deemed non-compliant or threat to national security

• MedAire security advice: Overflight and short turnaround operations may resume with heightened security precautions; classify as high risk; strictly comply with ATC instructions; expect GPS jamming/spoofing; park aircraft away from perimeter fence; carry satellite phones and extra fuel; use alternate navigation methods; monitor appropriate frequencies

East Pacific: Operation Southern Spear

• January 16 FAA warnings: Background information note with NOTAMs ICC Alpha 12/26 through Alpha 18/26 valid until March 17, extending surface to flight level unlimited

• Affected airspace: Mexico, Central America, Panama, Bogota, Guayaquil, and Mazatlan Oceanic FIRs, plus unassigned eastern Pacific Ocean airspace XX01

• Military activity risks: US military aircraft potentially operating at/below cruising altitudes without notice or transponders; reported GNSS interference

• Trump threatens cartels: Explicit threats of military action against Mexican drug cartels including surgical strikes and naval interdiction of trafficking routes

• Operation Southern Spear: US counter-drug smuggling operations in Caribbean Sea, Pacific Ocean, and Venezuela targeting fast-moving trafficking vessels and submersibles

• Limited regional response: No major US deployments confirmed beyond routine operations; Mexico issued reciprocal NOTAMs Bravo 73 and Bravo 75/26; other countries not on high alert

• MedAire security advice: Exercise extreme caution during overwater operations in affected FIRs; anticipate increased military presence; implement alternative communications and navigation methodologies; ensure aircraft identification equipment serviceable; maintain comprehensive contingency plans for short-notice disruptions

Middle East: Iran Strike Risk Elevated

• Israel-Hezbollah tensions acute: Ongoing Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in south Lebanon and Beqaa Valley with mounting disarmament efforts

• US carrier group deployed: USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group with destroyers, fighters, cargo planes, and tankers signal heightened readiness

• Israel maximum alert: Military elevated to maximum anticipating potential US strikes on Iran with pledged decisive retaliation

• Trump demands on Iran: Demands Iran dismantle nuclear program and cease protester crackdowns or face military consequences

• Recent flashpoints: US jet downed Iranian drone February 3; Navy escorts shielded tanker from Iranian vessels in Strait of Hormuz

• Nuclear talks shifted to Oman: Talks moved from Turkey amid intensifying diplomacy; West pushes three-point agenda (nuclear curbs, missile limits, proxy de-escalation); Iran rejects all but nuclear issue

• Iranian retaliation warning: Iran threatens retaliation mirroring 13-day June conflict—mass drone/missile barrages on Israel and US bases, proxy activations, strait disruptions

• Priority strike targets: Iranian air defenses, command nodes, missile facilities, enrichment sites—strained defenses amplify civilian risks

• Escalation impacts: Strikes would trigger Iran-wide airspace shutdowns, border restrictions, internet blackouts, consular isolation—crippling travel and evacuation; regional flight disruptions via NOTAMs

• MedAire security advice: Overflight of Tel Aviv FIR may proceed with caution and adherence to NOTAMs; recommend only short turnaround operations to all airports; defer all Iran operations until further notice; classify Middle East operations as high risk with additional mitigation measures; expect short-notice airport and airspace closures; prepare contingency procedures for GPS and GNSS outages

Weeks & Months Ahead: Regional Outlook

• Niger: Operators at Niamey's Diori Hamani International Airport—short turnaround operations may resume with caution following January 28-29 Islamic State Sahel province military attack; commercial aircraft sustained gunfire damage on tarmac; US embassy temporarily closed January 30 but reopened

• Ethiopia: Monitor Tigray state developments following intensified clashes between Ethiopian National Defense Forces, Amhara forces, and Tigrayan People's Liberation Front in Tselemt January 29-30; Ethiopian Airlines suspended then resumed Addis Ababa-Tigray flights; defer operations to all Tigray airports due to misidentification risk and hostile fire toward low-flying aircraft; overflight may proceed above FL320

• Cambodia-Thailand border: Defer operations to airports within 30 miles (50km) of border amid ceasefire violation allegations; Cambodia NOTAM Alpha 9/26 active until April 23; volatile security environment as core territorial disputes unaddressed; conflict restart likelihood remains in reclaimed/fenced areas

• GNSS interference surge: Jamming and spoofing surged in Middle East, Central America, Eastern Europe driven by conflict—disrupting GPS signals critical for aviation navigation; stay mindful near conflict zones where interference spikes; employ receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM), inertial navigation, HF communications backups, TCAS resolution advisory override protocols; real-time crew GPS anomaly reporting recommended for pattern analysis

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